This thing is for real

So based on this report….

If we’re not all completely stupid, expect social distancing, closed universities and schools, case isolation and household quarantine to last until late July at the earliest. At that point we can let up in varied locations until the cases start ticking up, then rinse and repeat until we have an effective vaccine available in large quantity.

If we are colossally stupid, we can expect 2.2M dead people by October in the US, the vast majority of whom will be older than 60.

Oh and best case “Flattening the curve” is 8x demand over supply for ICU beds in the US and UK.

Doing all of this right now will still see cases increasing until early July.

So if you see politicians on TV talking with a thousand yard stare, this report is likely why.

Older folks need to be providing massive immediate incentives to young people to get them to comply with the suppression strategy, because people under 30 can more or less conduct biological warfare against them with impunity.

Dear everyone over 60: For the next 12 to 18 months, coming into contact with anyone younger than you can kill you. Most of us who are infected will show no symptoms. Avoid us like the plague. I am in no way kidding about this. Don’t panic, but limit your exposure to us wherever possible.

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